[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Itse

...to elaborate why I'm (sort of, although not really) out of line with the consensus opinion:

While Russia is unlikely to completely collapse economically, the reality is that this war was never super popular in Russia. Despite all the propaganda, the amount of actual enthusiasm has been obviously pretty low. People don't hate it (the way they obviously should), but to me it looks like most people also don't think the war is super necessary. I don't think Russians for the most part see the war in Ukraine as some kind of an existential battle the way Putin obviously wants them to see it, the kind that would justify enormous economical hardships.

It's basically that I think a combination of factors are kind of a bigger problem for Putin than either one is individually.

Russians aren't yet hating the war enough to stand up to the regime, and the economy isn't bad enough to completely collapse yet to a point where they can't continue the war, but I don't think Russians just care enough about the war to take the kinds of economic hardships for example Ukrainians are probably willing to tolerate, or what countries were willing to tolerate during the World Wars.

To me Putins desperation to get results now no matter the military cost speaks of the fact that he knows he's short on time, that there just isn't enough time to do slow methodical attacks that his army is better suited for and which would keep the casualties at a lower level. He doesn't just want battlefield victories, I think he needs them.

There are also a lot of signs that Putin is very worried about the wars popularity inside Russia. The recent ban Russia has put on gasoline exports (which brings down the price of gasoline inside Russia, but obviously hurts both the state economy and the oil companies) is to me a clear sign that he is already in some ways desperate to please people so they won't turn on him.

His regime isn't a house of cards, but I don't think it's got a very solid foundation either.

Unfortunately, Ukraine will be hard pressed to hold out six months without a significant influx of troops, weapons and particularly ammunition. Russia is starting to make steady gains despite their horrific losses and Ukraine doesn't have the artillery to stop them. I think it's no coincidence that Macron and others are talking about potential intervention.