Quote:
Originally Posted by Itse
Yeah, 2 years seems to be the most typical prediction. Personally I'm leaning towards shorter predictions, I think there's a real chance that Russia's economy can't take that much more without starting to go down a spiral that destroys the populations willingness to continue the war.
To me, it's more like 50/50 that Russia doesn't last another six months, and 50/50 for every six months after that. All they need is one bug bump they weren't prepared for and it all starts coming down. While you can't predict surprises, surprises still happen all the time.
(Although obviously they could also get a windfall from somewhere. Who knows.)
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I think it comes down to the US election, a Trump win might seal Ukraine's fate but if Biden wins I suspect he will take the house with him, Trump after all will steal most of the GOP's campaign money so most of those congressmen will be paying for their ads with can and bottle returns, Biden back with a majority in the House turns the taps back on big time and that's the end for Russia