Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay Random
Actually, the argument isn't flawed.
There have been multiple threads on CP about this, detailing the exact math involved. Having a top-3 pick does not significantly improve your odds of winning the Stanley Cup. Roughly 90% of Cup winners are drawn from the 90% of teams that have one, and 10% of winners are drawn from the 10% of teams that don't have one.
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This has been fleshed out alot but theres a key difference in having a player drafted top-3, which almost every team has including the flames, verse having a player that you've drafted top 3.
The only teams to win the cup in the last decade without having a top-3 picked player that they draft are:
Blues (had pietrangelo though, they drafted 4th oa)
Golden knights (recent expansion team)
If you go back 20 years to 2004 you can throw in bruins, ducks and wings.
So 2/10 last 10 years and 5/20 cup teams didn't have a top 3 player they drafted.
If you change it to a top 5 player they drafted that number is further reduced by half.