Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
What I am saying is that the best predictor of a goalie's (or any athlete's) performance is their past performance (i.e. no change)
That is nothing like predicting red or black - they aren't comparable data items
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There are reasonably predictable aging curves for forwards and defense in hockey, and there aren’t for goaltenders. It is much better to spend money on those positions than in net.
When you predict red or black, not only is recency the best bet you can make, it is simultaneously the worst bet you can make. It’s the definition of randomness.