Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay Random
There is, in fact, no better guess than that – in roulette. The house has the same edge no matter what bet you make.
If there is any correlation at all from year X to year X+1, then ‘the same’ has an advantage over other bets.
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In roulette it doesn’t matter, as you said. So after 30 reds in a row, all numbers are equally likely to come out. Betting on the same color has zero advantage.
With this dataset there is an extremely weak positive correlation. So, in the absence of perfect data, I must agree with you. However, it amounts to a couple goals a year.