Quote:
Originally Posted by butterfly
“It came out on red last time. Best guess is the same!”
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except red (vs black) does not have a starting point. A goalie's stats do have a starting point. Assuming the same production for a goalie is not the same as assuming 'red' or heads twice in a row (and I suspect you know that)
Goals saved above expected is a stat that contains a ####-ton of noise but you are accepting these numbers like they are an undeniable truth. The randomness that is shown on that graph could be entirely the result of factors that are entirely outside the control of the goalies (i.e. team-related)