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Lurch · 06-04-2007, 12:33 PM

I think there are several things going on that could hit Alberta more than most of those heavily levered into oil prices want to realize. Ontario, California and BC have all recently adopted the following policy:

http://gov.ca.gov/index.php?/fact-sheet/5155/

Basically, it adopts lifecycle carbon standards for fuel. I expect that this will eventually result in much lower netbacks for oilsands projects as these are very carbon intensive. Oilsands oil will be worth much less in these markets, driving a bigger wedge between heavy and light oil prices, IMO. Unless Alberta (and oilsands specifically) can lower their carbon footprint, there are a lot of things that can hurt the province independant of actual oil prices.

06-04-2007, 12:33 PM	#43
Lurch Scoring Winger Join Date: Jan 2004 Exp:	I think there are several things going on that could hit Alberta more than most of those heavily levered into oil prices want to realize. Ontario, California and BC have all recently adopted the following policy: http://gov.ca.gov/index.php?/fact-sheet/5155/ Basically, it adopts lifecycle carbon standards for fuel. I expect that this will eventually result in much lower netbacks for oilsands projects as these are very carbon intensive. Oilsands oil will be worth much less in these markets, driving a bigger wedge between heavy and light oil prices, IMO. Unless Alberta (and oilsands specifically) can lower their carbon footprint, there are a lot of things that can hurt the province independant of actual oil prices.