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Itse · 03-05-2024, 03:55 AM

Perun with yet another excellent and very timely video.

Short version, in his own words "The biggest trap in 2024 would be to think of this war as 'settled' in its outcome".

Even with the United States undermined and relegated to a temporary state of irrelevance, it doesn't seem likely that Russia would be able to knock Ukraine out of the war in 2024.

While the current situation means hard times for Ukrainians and frankly is an embarrassment to the US and the West more generally, it also means that there is nothing to suggest that further help to Ukraine would be somehow a waste.

On the contrary, Ukraine is still able to put up a good fight under the current conditions, which massively favor Russia. Russia is likely close to it's peak in near term military capability. They have been resupplied by North Korea and Iran, they've already fully militarized their economy, while the worst effects of that to their population are yet to arrive, and they are probably already utilisizing or have utilized most of their Soviet stockpile. This is as good as the Russian military is probably going to get.

In the opposite corner, much of the Wests planned support is still being built, while US support is held hostage by the pro-Putin Jihadist party, aka the Republicans.

Even in this situation, Ukraine isn't looking like it's going to lose the war in the near term. That is a testament that this war is far from decided. Russia will likely be able to move lines on a map, but they will pay a terrible cost for it, and if Ukraine gets the support it deserves and the West is capable of, they could absolutely still kick Russia out of their country.

Lines on a map go back and forth. Just because it's moving one way now doesn't mean that it's going to keep moving that way until the war is over. Just like Ukrainians moving the lines the other way didn't mean the war was over. A lot can be done, and there's plenty of time to do it.

As Perun points out, Germany was "winning" at the end of the 1st world war, if you just look at where the battle line was at that time.

03-05-2024, 03:55 AM	#13323
Itse Franchise Player Join Date: May 2004 Location: Helsinki, Finland Exp:	Perun with yet another excellent and very timely video. Short version, in his own words "The biggest trap in 2024 would be to think of this war as 'settled' in its outcome". YouTube Video Even with the United States undermined and relegated to a temporary state of irrelevance, it doesn't seem likely that Russia would be able to knock Ukraine out of the war in 2024. While the current situation means hard times for Ukrainians and frankly is an embarrassment to the US and the West more generally, it also means that there is nothing to suggest that further help to Ukraine would be somehow a waste. On the contrary, Ukraine is still able to put up a good fight under the current conditions, which massively favor Russia. Russia is likely close to it's peak in near term military capability. They have been resupplied by North Korea and Iran, they've already fully militarized their economy, while the worst effects of that to their population are yet to arrive, and they are probably already utilisizing or have utilized most of their Soviet stockpile. This is as good as the Russian military is probably going to get. In the opposite corner, much of the Wests planned support is still being built, while US support is held hostage by the pro-Putin Jihadist party, aka the Republicans. Even in this situation, Ukraine isn't looking like it's going to lose the war in the near term. That is a testament that this war is far from decided. Russia will likely be able to move lines on a map, but they will pay a terrible cost for it, and if Ukraine gets the support it deserves and the West is capable of, they could absolutely still kick Russia out of their country. Lines on a map go back and forth. Just because it's moving one way now doesn't mean that it's going to keep moving that way until the war is over. Just like Ukrainians moving the lines the other way didn't mean the war was over. A lot can be done, and there's plenty of time to do it. As Perun points out, Germany was "winning" at the end of the 1st world war, if you just look at where the battle line was at that time. Last edited by Itse; 03-05-2024 at 04:00 AM.