Quote:
Originally Posted by thefoss1957
I don't buy the argument that a team has to tank to get good players. If that was true, then there is a team that has had 7 top 10 picks in a six year span (including 4 1st overalls!) that should have dominated. And as we all know, they are NG! In the short term, getting to the playoffs gives a team a chance at glory. Perpetual tanking? Gets you an E=NG thread at Calpuck!
|
Yep.
I actually dug through about 15 drafts from 2001 - 2016, and looked at who would have been the top 5 picks in a redraft.
I think 9/10 times #1 is still a top 5 pick once they all start playing, I think somewhere around 60-70% of the time was objectively the best player in the draft class (although it's certainly possible that Edmonton's player development policies skewed that number downward).
50% of #2-5 are still top 5 players.
So typically 3 of the best players in a draft go in the first 5 picks. usually filled out by 1 player form the late 1st round and 1 player from a later round.
You don't need a top 5 picks to get good players, but it's easier. 2016 is actually a fairly good example. The Flames arguably got the 2nd, 3rd and ~15-20th
best players in that draft with a 6th overall, and a late 2nd and an early 3rd. Unfortunately only 1 of the 3 still has a contract with the team, and I do not foresee him getting re-upped, but that's a different problem.