[FanIn80]

One of my problem with expected goals, is the way people use it. At its core, it's just supposed to represent a flatline rate of how an "average player" would perform in a given situation. It's not meant to measure how Patrick Kane would perform in those situations. (Actually, I'd argue it's more of a representation of the quality of the situations that occur when a player is on the ice -- not tecnically a measurement of the player... other than to say that when player x is on the ice, situations in which an average-skilled player would produce a goal occur more/less regularily than when they aren't on the ice.)

To say that "20 goals on 12.88 expected" is indicative of Kane unsustainably "outperforming xG" just belies the point of xG. It's supposed to help you figure out what the benefit of having a particular player on this ice is, and when used comparatively with actual goals and/or assists can help you see who the truly elite drivers and finishers are.

Kane has proved himself to be a highly superior finisher and driver over almost the entirety of his career, so I'm not sure why anyone is worried that he's outperforming an average player.