Quote:
Originally Posted by TheScorpion
Detroit's pre-shot puck movement and other microstats have generally ranked near the bottom of the league this season. The main exception is, yes, the PP — valuable, but less of a factor in playoff-style hockey, and I attribute a lot of its success to DeBrincat.
https://twitter.com/user/status/1761760671195189383
With Kane on the ice at 5v5 thus far this season, the Red Wings have scored 20 goals on 12.88 expected and have allowed 15 on 15.38 expected. Outperforming xG has been Kane's thing for a long time but never quite to this extent: he shot roughly 10% over his last four seasons in Chicago, compared to 19.05% now.
I think two things are true (and this is where the nuances come in): 1) Kane has historically broken xG models somewhat due to his very particular method of play in the offensive zone; 2) Kane is so far above his typical model-breaking baseline this year that it's almost impossible to look at his most recent results without a sizeable amount of apprehension. And even when he's at his baseline, Kane can cost you. |
Good thoughts here, a few ideas:
-it’s not like the Larkin line has previously been above water in g%
-Debrincat certainly didn’t have the magic touch in gelling in Ottawa. He is a good player, drives play, but can be a bit one dimensional in the ozone… strikes me that Kane is a good match for his game as it has in the past
-regress kanes numbers a bit and with his skills fair to say they could be around even after… that’s not worse than before, it just looks different, while moving good players down the lineup to improve other lines
-clearly his impacts are trending better than first few weeks… numbers still might be moving
All in all, the idea that Kane has hurt much of anything to this point, even considering underlying numbers, seems like a reach
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