Quote:
Originally Posted by opendoor
LOL. I'm not certain of anything. But polls do matter and they've been accurate in predicting the popular vote winner. Clinton had a 3-3.5 point lead on Trump in the polling aggregates and ended up winning by 2.1%. She also consistently led in the polls all through 2016.
In 2020, Biden also consistently led in head to head polls all through 2020 and led by 7-8% in the polling aggregates before the election, eventually winning the popular vote by 4.5%.
So why is it outlandish to look at Biden being consistently behind in the polls for the last 6 months, as well as his historically bad approval rating for a re-election candidate, and think that Trump is probably favored to win? Given Biden's poor performance in swing states, he probably needs to win the popular vote by about 3-4 points to win the election, and right now he's down by about 2 points nationwide.
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Mainly because this election is unprecedented in terms of how well known each candidate is. Polling this far out of an election historically has been non-predictive and the macro economic factors have been better at predicting 9 months out. This should favour Trump more though.
We also have a unique situation where the perception of the economy does not align with the performance of the economy so how does that skew the macro predictions.
We also have the election results which favour Biden.
https://abcnews.go.com/amp/538/2024-...y?id=107369614
An interesting article discussing the issue.