Quote:
Originally Posted by opendoor
LOL. I'm not certain of anything. But polls do matter and they've been accurate in predicting the popular vote winner. Clinton had a 3-3.5 point lead on Trump in the polling aggregates and ended up winning by 2.1%. She also consistently led in the polls all through 2016.
In 2020, Biden also consistently led in head to head polls all through 2020 and led by 7-8% in the polling aggregates before the election, eventually winning the popular vote by 4.5%.
So why is it outlandish to look at Biden being consistently behind in the polls for the last 6 months, as well as his historically bad approval rating for a re-election candidate, and think that Trump is probably favored to win? Given Biden's poor performance in swing states, he probably needs to win the popular vote by about 3-4 points to win the election, and right now he's down by about 2 points nationwide.
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Ok I will give that it appears polling and popular vote appear fairly correlated, so you're right. I guess for me the fact that a Republican has won the popular vote twice since 1984, but they're definitely going to win it this time around. Regardless of polling, I can't see that happening.
I still reaaally want to see you eat that bowl though.