[CaptainCrunch]

We can talk about Russian production all we want, but we know there are serious problems in terms of things like design, access to required technology and corruption. Russian modern equipment is suffering from not only design flaws but outright corruption. Things like substituting in inferior materials on armor, inferior computer chips so that managers can steal this money is the scourge of Russian production.

At the same time, I think we can safely say that corners are being cut on training their conscript soldier base.

These two things have been a problem since the fall of the Berlin wall. At the same time, Russia has always struggled with quality control and advanced material manufacturing.

While Russia has the ability to send a lot of equipment and ammunition to the front in theory, it doesn't help if half of it fails on arrival.

The problem for Ukraine and their military is that they are running into some supply issues. On top of that one of the common errors in any war is that prewar projections for supply use rarely is true. In a war you go through things like ammunition and fuel and equipment rapidly.

There are lots of questions, can Russia marshal enough men, equipment, ammunition and food to create a massive advantage in numbers, they tend to have a strategy of 5-1 kitchen sinking in war.

Can Ukraine hold on.

It feels like both sides have lost the initiative, and neither have the means to get it back. I expect in 5 years we'll still be talking about this war and when its going to end.