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					Originally Posted by  Jiri Hrdina
					 
				 
				You might be right.  
Interesting study about it: 
 https://web.stanford.edu/class/stats...ide%20Kick.pdf
"he probability that the kicking team recovers the onside kick and wins the game is 30.4%. The probability that the kicking team does not recover and wins the game is 19.1%. Adding those two probabilities up tells us that kicking team has a 49.5% chance of winning if they start overtime with an onside kick."
 
EDIT: That's obviously a different scenario but still interesting.  
			
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Since the rule change onside kicks are only recovered 6% of the time.