[darockwilder]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

You might be right.
Interesting study about it:

https://web.stanford.edu/class/stats...ide%20Kick.pdf

"he probability that the kicking team recovers the onside kick and wins the game is 30.4%. The probability that the kicking team does not recover and wins the game is 19.1%. Adding those two probabilities up tells us that kicking team has a 49.5% chance of winning if they start overtime with an onside kick."

EDIT: That's obviously a different scenario but still interesting.