[Bring_Back_Shantz]

Originally Posted by ericschand

No. The odds do not change, assuming all other constants are the same,
it will remain the same.

The probability will change, as the amount of time gone by changes, etc.
This probability will draw towards 1. This number is NOT the same as the
odds.

In the example you gave earlier, you forgot that the number of
years has changed (after all, one year has gone by). Your odds
won't change, but your probability will.

In general, the rule is, the more time that passes with an event not
occuring, the probability that the event will occur approaches 1.

I think you are confused by slang, where odds and probability and chances
are the same. In math and statistics they have completely different
meanings.

Another example is the "big one" earthquake they expect in California.
The longer they go without one, the odds remain the same (assuming
the earth doesn't change, which is incorrect), however the probability
of one occurring rises (towards 1 - everybody panic!).

ers

First off, cube put it nicely so read his post.
To further his explination, what you're doing is comparing the probability for one year to that of an extended time period say 1000000 years since the last impact which is not logical at all. If an event occurs once every 1000000 then your average wait time for that even to occur will be 1000000 no matter when you start waiting. So no matter how long ago the last event occured, the probability of it hitting this year is the same as any other year because you could say that you're in year 1 of your wait, year 10, year 999999, it doesn't matter.

yes as you take a longer and longer time span the probability (AND ODDS) of an event occuring in that span is going to increase, but saying that changes the chance/probabilty/odds if it changing this year is absolutely false.