Fangraph's postseason odds have been released and Jays are 48% to make the postseason:
https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds
The accompanying article discusses how the AL East is a buzzsaw again...
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My goodness, this division is good. Our model simulates the actual schedule, but to do that, we first forecast team strengths in a vacuum, and the AL East has four of the top 10 teams in baseball, and four of the top six teams in the American League. If we played in a weird counterfactual world where instead of facing each other, every team played a hypothetical .500 team 162 times, our model projects that the AL East would outscore their opponents by a combined 218 runs. The second-best division in baseball is the NL East… at 44 runs.
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We have the Jays as the seventh-best team in baseball, but think they’ll win the 12th-most games.
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Feels like the most likely scenario is trying to get 3rd in the division and grab one of the last wildcard spots. I usually don't mind when a pretty good team stands pat despite poor luck in the playoffs, but with the AL East looking much more difficult this year it does feel like the Jays have been left behind a bit.