Quote:
Originally Posted by Bring_Back_Shantz
Either way, they both describe the likelihood of an event occuring and in this instance neither one is changing.
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No. The odds do not change, assuming all other constants are the same,
it will remain the same.
The probability will change, as the amount of time gone by changes, etc.
This probability will draw towards 1. This number is NOT the same as the
odds.
In the example you gave earlier, you forgot that the number of
years has changed (after all, one year has gone by). Your odds
won't change, but your probability will.
In general, the rule is, the more time that passes with an event not
occuring, the probability that the event will occur approaches 1.
I think you are confused by slang, where odds and probability and chances
are the same. In math and statistics they have completely different
meanings.
Another example is the "big one" earthquake they expect in California.
The longer they go without one, the odds remain the same (assuming
the earth doesn't change, which is incorrect), however the probability
of one occurring rises (towards 1 - everybody panic!).
ers