Quote:
Originally Posted by Flames Fan, Ph.D.
In other words, you should be picking in the first two rounds of the draft every year because the cumulative benefit is evident.
And once you factor in the lottery odds for the top 3 teams (18.5%, 13.5%, 11.5%), tanking to try and get the first overall in order to get a star makes little to no sense mathematically.
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Odds of getting a star drop dramtically past the top 5. If you tank to get 1st overall and miss, you are likely getting a top 5 pick. The worst team in the NHL gets a top 3 even losing in lottery twice.
Picking 6-10 is a good way to stay rebuilding for many years. I have always said this is the worst spot to be in. Stats show picking 11-20 is almost as good so missing the playoff by a few points really isn't that bad of a spot.