[Bring_Back_Shantz]

Originally Posted by ericschand

Captain Crunch: As the years go on, the odds of an asteroid or other object not hitting us shrinks at an incredible rate.



I think the confusion is over odds vs probability. The odds remain the
same, 1/1000000 or whatever the number is.

The probability that we get hit approaches 1 (or 100% if you want) the
longer Earth goes without getting hit.

Capn Crunch meant to say, "As the years go on, the probability of an asteroid or other object not
hitting us shrinks at an incredible rate."

ers

Odds/probability are the exact same thing. If the odds of getting hit by an asteroid this year is 1/1000000, then the probability of it happening this year is 0.000001, the exact same thing. The odds/probability of getting hit by an asteroid this year are no different than the are any other year, regardless of how long ago the last one hit.