Captain Crunch: As the years go on, the odds of an asteroid or other object not hitting us shrinks at an incredible rate.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bring_Back_Shantz
Okay,
But based on a few assumptions:
1) we don't know about the vast majority of the objects in our solar system
2) we don't know about their orbits
3) The are relatively randomly arranged
then we can treat it as any other random event.
On aveage a object of X size hits the earth every 1000000 years.
So the chances of one hitting this year are 1 in 1000000, regardless of how long it's been since the last one hit.
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I think the confusion is over odds vs probability. The odds remain the
same, 1/1000000 or whatever the number is.
The probability that we get hit approaches 1 (or 100% if you want) the
longer Earth goes without getting hit.
Capn Crunch meant to say, "As the years go on, the probability of an asteroid or other object not
hitting us shrinks at an incredible rate."
ers