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Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague
nhlE is a good standard to compare production across non NHL leagues. It is a TERRIBLE tool for predicting a player's production at the NHL level. The reason is due to the opportunities a player receives in the two leagues.
If your conclusion is that HB is more likely to be a successful NHL defenseman than Willander, you simply do not understand basic principles of talent evaluation. There are 0 NHL scouts who would agree with that. There is a wide range of outcomes for this type of player, from Adam Fox to Michael Del Zotto to Ty Smith to Will Butcher to Marc Andre Gragnani to AHL lifer. The bell curve is much fatter for the latter type of player and that is simply the reality. Be optimistic but reasonably so and don't throw out laughable, call-in-show quality takes.
This is a prospect with value. That value is not 12th overall pick value. Full stop.
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Literally no one is making claims like you're suggesting.
As for your last sentence, you first laughed at people for basing comments off NHLe, then you turn around and make your case based on draft position. Ignoring the appeal to authority, the draft is a snapshot in time. Players progress and regress. The 2023 draft was the deepest in history, and some scouts think there were more than 50 players with top 6, top 4 potential. And again, that was at that moment.
We now have another half year of data. Some kids are going to progress this year more than others. And who has progressed more than anyone? Brzustewicz. So do we evaluate the progression? Or do we just say hey, we have the draft data, we know who's good and who isn't?