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Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague
nhlE is a good standard to compare production across non NHL leagues. It is a TERRIBLE tool for predicting a player's production at the NHL level. The reason is due to the opportunities a player receives in the two leagues.
If your conclusion is that HB is more likely to be a successful NHL defenseman than Willander, you simply do not understand basic principles of talent evaluation. There are 0 NHL scouts who would agree with that. There is a wide range of outcomes for this type of player, from Adam Fox to Michael Del Zotto to Ty Smith to Will Butcher to Marc Andre Gragnani to AHL lifer. The bell curve is much fatter for the latter type of player and that is simply the reality. Be optimistic but reasonably so and don't throw out laughable, call-in-show quality takes.
This is a prospect with value. That value is not 12th overall pick value. Full stop.
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No one said any of those things.
NHLe is far from perfect. But one thing it does is quantify progression. And though the comparisons are far from perfect, we can compare against other player's numbers, as long as we understand the limitations.
Brzustewicz jumped from an NHLe of 22 in his draft year, to 39 in his D+1 year. That is incredible progression.
For Willander, we only have this year unfortunately, so measuring progression is not possible. But his number for this year is 12.
It's not perfect, it's not even great. And the only thing it's measuring is production. But that doesn't mean we can't use it and discuss it. And it's the only tool we have.