Quote:
Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague
nhlE is a good standard to compare production across non NHL leagues. It is a TERRIBLE tool for predicting a player's production at the NHL level. The reason is due to the opportunities a player receives in the two leagues.
If your conclusion is that HB is more likely to be a successful NHL defenseman than Willander, you simply do not understand basic principles of talent evaluation. There are 0 NHL scouts who would agree with that. There is a wide range of outcomes for this type of player, from Adam Fox to Michael Del Zotto to Ty Smith to Will Butcher to Marc Andre Gragnani to AHL lifer. The bell curve is much fatter for the latter type of player and that is simply the reality. Be optimistic but reasonably so and don't throw out laughable, call-in-show quality takes.
This is a prospect with value. That value is not 12th overall pick value. Full stop.
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Byron Bader's model spits out the following comparables:
Tom Willander - Tim Erixon, Jeff Petry
Hunter Brzustewicz - Pavel Mintyukov, Rasmus Sandin, Noah Dobson
I'd take Bader's model over any scout's eye test for talent evaluation. As you can tell, I'm heavily biased towards statistical models.
Unless - all of these subjective measures are an actual flaw holding the player back - skating (for example) - I really don't think they are more important than actual production at certain age in a certain league.
EDIT:
Which is why "scouting" took a massive leap forwards with the implementation of analytics.