Quote:
Originally Posted by Bring_Back_Shantz
The odds don't shrink at all, they stay exactly the same every year. They are indepedant events. Just because we didn't get hit by a once in a million year size rock this year doesn't mean our chances of getting hit by one next year are greater. Our chance of getting hit by a once in a million year size rock on any given year are exacty....1 in 1000000, regardless of how long ago the last one hit.
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It's not like playing the lottery. Objects in space have an orbit, and a path. It's only a matter of time until a NEO and Earth's path's cross. If you can find the path of a NEO, you can then calculate if and when that object and earth's paths will cross (given that nothing deviates that objects orbit).