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Originally Posted by zamler
It comes across that way. If I told you, well great you made money but IF you would have done this you would have done even better. That's not fair because you have the benefit of knowing what happened.
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Sure, it was a little snarky, but so was the post I was responding to which basically characterized equity investing as handing your money over to a high-fee financial planner.
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What time horizon? In 5 years BTC saw a 10x bump the further back you go in time the better BTC looks. Over 10 years it went up something like 100x.
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Yeah, BTC obviously beats almost anything if you go back far enough. But my point was that since 2021 it has largely been flat (and has dropped in value in real terms). Obviously it's very volatile, so there's still lots of money to be made if you time it right, even if the price doesn't appreciate.
And maybe it'll break out higher and surpass its prior peaks; gold is about as mature an investment that exists and it has seen huge increases in the last 25 years. So it's not out of the realm of possibility that Bitcoin could do the same. But no one really knows, and as the Bitcoin market matures, inefficiencies in its valuation are going to be harder to exploit.
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On Apple, I keep asking myself how high can their market cap go?
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My problem is, every time I've been skeptical about their growth potential, they've proven me wrong so it's hard to sell. Luckily I've still held on, but I agree. If it were to perform the next 5 years like it did that last 5, that's a ~$14T market cap. That doesn't seem possible barring insane currency devaluation or something like that.