[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by TOfan

….huh?

The draft has quite a bit to do with luck. First off, it’s a lottery. The best odds any team can have of drafting 1OA is 25.5%.

I don’t gamble, but I would say those are not too favourable odds.

As for Makar, the Avalanche were lucky. In a redraft (and you do like hindsight) Makar goes 1st every day of the week and twice on Sunday. If the Avalanche didn’t have good luck or fortune or whatever, then I don’t know what luck is, I guess.

I see the odds a little differently. Here are the pick odds you mention. If we combine those with the odds of drafting a franchise player/top player based on the last ~15 years.

We get the following when we account for the lottery odds:

• 32ndoverall before the lottery
  • 30.7% chance to get a franchise player
  • 18.0% chance to get a top line player or top 2D
  • 27.6% chance to get a top 6 player or top 4D
  • 23.7% to get a Depth player or a bust
• 31st overall before the lottery
  • 28.2% chance to get a franchise player
  • 16.0% chance to get a top line player or top 2D
  • 31.5% chance to get a top 6 player or top 4D
  • 24.4% to get a Depth player or a bust
• 30th overall before the lottery
  • 25.3% chance to get a franchise player
  • 23.5% chance to get a top line player or top 2D
  • 27.3% chance to get a top 6 player or top 4D
  • 23.8% to get a Depth player or a bust
• 29th overall before the lottery
  • 20.7% chance to get a franchise player
  • 28.4% chance to get a top line player or top 2D
  • 23.0% chance to get a top 6 player or top 4D
  • 27.8% to get a Depth player or a bust
  
  ---
• Math explained:
  • The worst team would have a 25.5% chance of winning the lottery, 18.8% of drafting 2nd, or 55.7% chance of drafting third*. The first overall pick resulted in a franchise player 56% of the time from 2004-2019, the 2nd overall pick resulted in a 31% chance, and the third overall pick resulted in a 19% chance.
  • In probability we use multiplication for AND, and addition for OR.
  • So using those odds we get 56% * 25.5% + 31% * 18.8% + 55.7% * 19% = 30.7%
  • * I used the numbers I found on the internet on Tankathon, I assume they changed the draft lottery odds slightly because a team finishing last could finish 4th before.

I only did the math for the teams that finish in the bottom 4, because the odds of picking a franchise player with the 7th overall pick and later weren't readily available, and I'm too lazy to calculate them to make an argument.