[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by gvitaly

I wanted to add to the top 5 pick discussion, so here's the draft pick summary from 2004-2019.

You can argue that I miscategorized a couple of players, but this is just to give the general idea of the types of players we can get with each top 5 pick and the probability for each tier.

1. 1st overall:
   • Franchise Players (56%): Ovechkin(04), Crosby(05), P. Kane(07), Stamkos(08), MacKinnon(13), McDavid(15), Matthews(16), Dahlin(18), Hughes(19)
   • Top pair/First line (25%): Tavares(09), Hall(10), Ekblad(14), Hischier(17)
   • Second pair/Top 6 (13%): E. Johnson(06), RNH(11)
   • 3rd line/5th D (0%):
   • Bust/Depth (6%): Yakupov(12)
2. 2nd overall:
   • Franchise Players (31%): Malkin(04), Doughty(08), Hedman(09), Barkov(13), Eichel(15)
   • Top pair/First line (25%): Seguin(10), Landeskog(11), S. Reinhart(14), Svechnikov(18)
   • Second pair/Top 6 (19%): J. Staal(06), JVR(07), Laine(16)
   • 3rd line/5th D (19%): B. Ryan(05), R. Murray(12), Kaapo(19)
   • Bust/Depth (6%): N. Patrick(17)
3. 3rd overall:
   • Franchise Players (19%): J. Toews(06), Draisaitl(14), Heiskanen(17)
   • Top pair/First line (13%): Duchene(09), Huberdeau(11)
   • Second pair/Top 6 (38%): J. Johnson(05), Bogosian(08), Strome(15), PLD(16), Kotkaniemi(18), Dach(19)
   • 3rd line/5th D (25%): Turris(07), Gudbranson(10), Galchenyuk(12), Drouin(13)
   • Bust/Depth (6%): Barker(04)
4. 4th overall:
   • Franchise Players (25%): Backstrom(06), Pietrangelo(08), Marner(15) Makar(17)
   • Top pair/First line (13%): B. Tkachuk(18), Byram(19)
   • Second pair/Top 6 (38%): Ladd(04), E. Kane(09), R. Johansen (10), Larsson(11), S. Jones(13), Bennett(14)
   • 3rd line/5th D (6%): Hickey(07)
   • Bust/Depth (19%): Pouliot(05), G. Reinhart(12), Puljujarvi(16)
   
   
5. 5th overall:
   • Franchise Players (13%): Price(05), Pettersson(17)
   • Top pair/First line (40%): Wheeler(04), Kessel(06), B. Schenn(09), M. Rielly(12), E. Lindholm(13), Hanifin(15)
   • Second pair/Top 6 (20%): Alzner(07), Niederreiter(10), R. Strome(11)
   • 3rd line/5th D (13%): L. Schenn(08), Hayton(18)
   • Bust/Depth (13%): Dal Colle(14), Juolevi(16)
   • Not enough NHL games so far to even speculate: Turcotte(19)

Feel free to move players around between the categories if you think I got some of them wrong, but that's a good starting point. For example both Marner and Backstrom could be considered 1st liners, Hanifin a 2nd pairing D etc.

Originally Posted by Macho0978

If you look at 6th overall, there is a huge drop off in the odds of getting a star

Franchise Player: Tkachuk (16), Seider (19) 12.5%
Top Pair/1st Line: Zibanejad (11), H Lindholm (12), Monahan (13) 18.75%
2nd Pair/Top 6: Brassard (06), Gagner (07), OEL (09), Zacha (15) 25%
3rd Line/5th D: Glass (17) 6.25%
Bust/Depth: Montoya (04), Brule (05), Filatov (08), Connolly (10), Virtanen (14), Zadina (18) 37.5%

The odds of a bust goes up dramatically when you drop out of the top 5 of the draft. IMO if you're not committing to getting a top 5 pick you better draft well or you're just wasting a season for nothing. If we don't commit to the top 5, we need to draft well and hopefully add some good picks and prospects.

These are two high quality posts. Thanks!


I am really interested to see that in the top three there is a 94% chance you get an NHL player. This is what the Flames need to aim for.