[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by gvitaly

I wanted to add to the top 5 pick discussion, so here's the draft pick summary from 2004-2019.

You can argue that I miscategorized a couple of players, but this is just to give the general idea of the types of players we can get with each top 5 pick and the probability for each tier.

1. 1st overall:
   • Franchise Players (56%): Ovechkin(04), Crosby(05), P. Kane(07), Stamkos(08), MacKinnon(13), McDavid(15), Matthews(16), Dahlin(18), Hughes(19)
   • Top pair/First line (25%): Tavares(09), Hall(10), Ekblad(14), Hischier(17)
   • Second pair/Top 6 (13%): E. Johnson(06), RNH(11)
   • 3rd line/5th D (0%):
   • Bust/Depth (6%): Yakupov(12)
2. 2nd overall:
   • Franchise Players (31%): Malkin(04), Doughty(08), Hedman(09), Barkov(13), Eichel(15)
   • Top pair/First line (25%): Seguin(10), Landeskog(11), S. Reinhart(14), Svechnikov(18)
   • Second pair/Top 6 (19%): J. Staal(06), JVR(07), Laine(16)
   • 3rd line/5th D (19%): B. Ryan(05), R. Murray(12), Kaapo(19)
   • Bust/Depth (6%): N. Patrick(17)
3. 3rd overall:
   • Franchise Players (19%): J. Toews(06), Draisaitl(14), Heiskanen(17)
   • Top pair/First line (13%): Duchene(09), Huberdeau(11)
   • Second pair/Top 6 (38%): J. Johnson(05), Bogosian(08), Strome(15), PLD(16), Kotkaniemi(18), Dach(19)
   • 3rd line/5th D (25%): Turris(07), Gudbranson(10), Galchenyuk(12), Drouin(13)
   • Bust/Depth (6%): Barker(04)
4. 4th overall:
   • Franchise Players (25%): Backstrom(06), Pietrangelo(08), Marner(15) Makar(17)
   • Top pair/First line (13%): B. Tkachuk(18), Byram(19)
   • Second pair/Top 6 (38%): Ladd(04), E. Kane(09), R. Johansen (10), Larsson(11), S. Jones(13), Bennett(14)
   • 3rd line/5th D (6%): Hickey(07)
   • Bust/Depth (19%): Pouliot(05), G. Reinhart(12), Puljujarvi(16)
   
   
5. 5th overall:
   • Franchise Players (13%): Price(05), Pettersson(17)
   • Top pair/First line (40%): Wheeler(04), Kessel(06), B. Schenn(09), M. Rielly(12), E. Lindholm(13), Hanifin(15)
   • Second pair/Top 6 (20%): Alzner(07), Niederreiter(10), R. Strome(11)
   • 3rd line/5th D (13%): L. Schenn(08), Hayton(18)
   • Bust/Depth (13%): Dal Colle(14), Juolevi(16)
   • Not enough NHL games so far to even speculate: Turcotte(19)

Feel free to move players around between the categories if you think I got some of them wrong, but that's a good starting point. For example both Marner and Backstrom could be considered 1st liners, Hanifin a 2nd pairing D etc.

If you look at 6th overall, there is a huge drop off in the odds of getting a star

Franchise Player: Tkachuk (16), Seider (19) 12.5%
Top Pair/1st Line: Zibanejad (11), H Lindholm (12), Monahan (13) 18.75%
2nd Pair/Top 6: Brassard (06), Gagner (07), OEL (09), Zacha (15) 25%
3rd Line/5th D: Glass (17) 6.25%
Bust/Depth: Montoya (04), Brule (05), Filatov (08), Connolly (10), Virtanen (14), Zadina (18) 37.5%

The odds of a bust goes up dramatically when you drop out of the top 5 of the draft. IMO if you're not committing to getting a top 5 pick you better draft well or you're just wasting a season for nothing. If we don't commit to the top 5, we need to draft well and hopefully add some good picks and prospects.