[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Exactly (the whole post), but I'll focus on the Makar shot as an example.

As you say, the Makar shot, being a one timer from the top of the slot, probably has a 10-15% chance of scoring. But he made a perfect shot, which is going to beat any goalie. None the less, xGA says that the goalie failed by .8% (or whatever the actual percentage was).

In the aggregate (i.e. over many games) these things should balance out, but in a single game, they do not - JUST LIKE SAVE PERCENTAGE.

When a puck is tipped, it probably has a 5% chance of going in (or whatever the number is), but a perfect tip leaves the goalie with no chance. If there are a couple perfect tips or lucky bounces in a game, the goalie is going to be under water, vs their xGA. In the exact same way that they will be under water vs shot attempts on some nights.

People put way too much value in these stats.

Once again last night someone commented on save percentage. In the second period.