Quote:
Originally Posted by Itse
I'm still not too worried.
The signs that Russian economy might be approaching a real crisis are still coming steadily, and overall the polling in Europe is still showing strong support for Ukraine. There are also clear commitments for support already ongoing, like the F-16s.
EU has already committed to twice as much support for Ukraine as the US, and their commitments are largely in the budgets until at least 2025, and in some cases until 2027 (Germany most notably). EU is also very seriously discussing Ukraine's path to EU membership despite the war.
I don't see anyone "tapping Zelenskiy on the shoulder" anytime soon. (Not to mention that the whole idea of that happening is pretty weird, I don't get how people think that's how this works.)
Simultaneously, the relationship between Russia and China has greatly soured ever since Russia banned almost all fuel exports for a month this fall to make sure their domestic supply doesn't run out in the middle of harvest season, a perplexing move which is a huge indicator that Russia is hurting quite seriously.
As a small example of that, but I guess fitting for this forum, China even shunned Russias pretty traditional invitational fall tournament (formerly part of the EHT), forcing Russia to hastily put together a "KHL stars" team to have a fourth team alongside Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. (And in true Russian fashion that "KHL-stars" team mostly consisted of non-KHL players from lower tiers of Russian hockey. For some reason.)
|
The reason why I say tapping on the shoulder of Zelensky is that there have been enough articles, comments and more from senior members of the Ukrainian government and army indicating in some ways. There was an article about the lack of "big, beautiful, counterattack" not coming from the top defense official in Ukraine in Economist magazine.
Zeleneky may continue to want to fight, but if NATO and the west all but stop shipments, what is he fighting with?
The complete lack of significant movement in terms of ammunition, shells, top tier quality tanks, and F16's and more is in some ways, deafening, consider the silence overall.
PRIOR to the counteroffensive, Zeleneky was talking F16's, 3000 tanks (not 300 from the world) long range firing power and more. Since then, virtually every single person understands that things never went as well as they thought, or should have.
I have heard enough NATO personnel say, NATO countries would not even get out of bed, send men to battle, without air cover and superiority. What we are asking of Ukraine to do, is in essence, almost militarily, impossible.
I hope I am dead wrong in this regard, but the commentary and more suggests we are being prepared for a drop down in overall support.
We will know how this shapes up in the near term. Will Ukraine make it to NATO in a few years? Will it be in the EU? Will the billions and billions in assets from Russian elites actually be used for reconstruction of Ukraine?
I just don't know if I believe that the some of the wealthiest and most powerful men in the world (Russian elite) are going to be standing in line for bread, but that is the line we have been fed for nearly 2 years.
As I mentioned earlier, I hope I am DEAD wrong