[Itse]

I'm still not too worried.

The signs that Russian economy might be approaching a real crisis are still coming steadily, and overall the polling in Europe is still showing strong support for Ukraine. There are also clear commitments for support already ongoing, like the F-16s.

EU has already committed to twice as much support for Ukraine as the US, and their commitments are largely in the budgets until at least 2025, and in some cases until 2027 (Germany most notably). EU is also very seriously discussing Ukraine's path to EU membership despite the war.

I don't see anyone "tapping Zelenskiy on the shoulder" anytime soon. (Not to mention that the whole idea of that happening is pretty weird, I don't get how people think that's how this works.)

Simultaneously, the relationship between Russia and China has greatly soured ever since Russia banned almost all fuel exports for a month this fall to make sure their domestic supply doesn't run out in the middle of harvest season, a perplexing move which is a huge indicator that Russia is hurting quite seriously.

As a small example of that, but I guess fitting for this forum, China even shunned Russias pretty traditional invitational fall tournament (formerly part of the EHT), forcing Russia to hastily put together a "KHL stars" team to have a fourth team alongside Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. (And in true Russian fashion that "KHL-stars" team mostly consisted of non-KHL players from lower tiers of Russian hockey. For some reason.)