Quote:
Originally Posted by cannon7
Well at the end of the day it is the guy between the pipes who has the job of stopping pucks. Some of the first shots he faces may be high danger, some may be low danger. I would expect that distribution to normalize in aggregate, but who knows? Maybe the Flames are really bad in this regard.
But if the goaltender's SV% is off leading up to that first goal and otherwise average after that, then this puts the team statistically in a hole. The team that scores first has a 65.2% probability of winning the game.
Sadly the MoneyPucks of the world don't currently have stats for first shot/goal of the game. Although I would imagine it could be derived from their dataset.
But it seems like you want to just attribute 11 first goals against out of 13 games as random chance. I'll grant you that it isn't a large sample size, but there were similar numbers last season.
Another poster pointed out that Vladar is worse. And I agree. But only one of them is being paid like a #1. And that #1 is ranked 29th in the league right now.
|
Honestly I don't have a horse in this race.
If we found a site or an analysis that says Markstrom is brutal in first periods or something I'd welcome the information.
But we don't really know who to blame ... it's likely the player and the team.
However I did show numbers earlier today that showed the Flames seem to have a very skewed differential between giving up a league average amount of expected goals despite being top five in shots against.
That's murder on a goalie's save percentage.
Either way ... after the last week or so of odd debates, I appreciate your class in this one!