Thread: [Game Takes] Canucks 4 Flames 3
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Old 12-03-2023, 12:35 PM   #61
Infinit47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo View Post
That's a good question!

You would think it would still come from probability, but do they have probabilities with an empty net? Do you take into account that the shot was going wide?

If they don't take into account probabilities for empty netters than a shot from there would be worth basically zero for expected goals.
If there is no goalie then a shot in net must have an expected goal of 1. I'm pretty sure when looking during the game I've seen big leaps in XG% for the team scoring an EN goal.

It would mean last night that Markstrom allowed 3 goals on 2.63 expected goals. He is 24 of the 32 GSAA of the 32 goalies who have played 11 games or more on Natural Stat trick.

He's been average, or maybe slightly below average among the best 32 goalies.
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