Quote:
Originally Posted by getbak
I'm no fancy stats guru, but if I understand correctly, xGA and xGF are "expected" goals based on the quality of shots. So, it shouldn't be considered a good thing if your expected goals against are among the best in the league but your actual goals against are among the worst.
At least if both are bad, you could theoretically improve the expected goals against and your actual goals against should drop. If you're already keeping the quality of shots low and still bottom 5 in the league in GAA, there's no room for improvement and what happens when the other teams start getting higher quality shots?
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It can suggest that a mean correction is due for a team that has had a tough start.
If your goalie never improves your screwed, but if he does the team is playing better defense than the goals against would suggest.
Same with shooting percentage. A high xGF should eventually result in more goals if you continue to play the same way, but that can be trumped by a lack of shooting talent.