Originally Posted by Thor
So just to clear up a few comments here, yes these quakes are felt, a lot of residents in Grindavík before the evacuation were rattled, and many left before the evacuation order, it was no joke, these people are very much used to quakes.
This eruption is likely to end up inland, there is a small chance it could erupt in the ocean near Grindavík, which would cause some massive plumes but unlikely to affect international air travel, but could affect flights to Keflavík International which is not far away. Eruption inland is not going to concern air travel, like the previous 3, but they expect this one to be bigger than the previous 3.
Typically for something to really scare everyone and affect international air traffic, you need the big boys of Iceland to erupt, such as Katla under a massive glacier sheet, those are explosive monsters that erupt on the south coast, Katla is not far from Eyjafjallajökull and would be much bigger than that, btw that area has been seismically active the last number of years, so we are all just waiting on for them to erupt again.
Iceland once in 1973 dealt with the Vestmannaeyjar eruption which popped up in the middle of the town on that Island, we are all holding our breath that Grindavík is spared from the same fate.
Everyone is just waiting at this point, a lot of indicators of an imminent eruption have been there for weeks now, and the most recent news is an area further from Grindavík is showing an uplift in the ground indicating the fissure could be moving away, and to another area. Again lots of speculation but Gríndavík, The Blue Lagoon, and Svartsengi geothermal plants are all in a dangerous area.
The reasons why it hasn't erupted yet are for much speculation, experts think the lava is trying to find its way up and the near crust rock it is under is not making it easy, so the lava is still very shallow but moving and its anybody's guess where it ends up, but the danger area is not that large, so lets just hope Grindavík is spared.
But a lot of shaken people in Grindavík, are now refugees in their own country, and many are considering never going back, understandably.
The big issue isn't just that this next eruption could hit Grindavík or the nearby Blue Lagoon/Svartsengi areas, but that this whole region is now active and it's likely in the next years, decades, and centuries that many eruptions will occur like the last time this area was active and that's very bad news for the area.
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