Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay Random
Here's the graph with the actual data from that article:
That there is what statisticians like to call ‘a cloud of dots’. I'm blest if I can see any strong correlation there. If anything, there is a weak negative correlation – teams with the most playoff wins tend to have fewer than average top-10 picks, whereas the teams with the most top-10 picks have had very little playoff success.
So that particular set of data does not at all support the case that the article tries to make. The author actually looked at the numbers and then rejected them in favour of the narrative he wanted to push. |
Top Left - Lots of High Picks with Little Playoff Success: 10 teams - CBJ, WPG, ARI, FLA, EDM, NYI, OTT, BUF, CAR, VAN
One Stanley Cup: Carolina
Top Right: - Lots of High Picks with playoff Success: 6 TEAMS - ANA, NJ, TBL, NYR, CHI, SHS
11 Stanley Cups: Ana x 1, NJ x 3, TBL x 3, NYR x 1, CHI x 3,
Bottom Left: Fewer high picks with little playoff success: 4 Teams - MIN, CGY, NSH, LA
2 Stanley Cups: LA x 2
Bottom Right: Fewer High picks with more playoff success: 10 Teams - TOR, MTL, WSH, BOS, PHL, DAL, STL, COL, PIT, DET
15 Stanley Cups: DET x 4, COL x 3, PIT x 3, STL x 1, DAL x 1 , BOS x 1, WSH x 1 , MTL x 1
I excluded SEA and VEGAS since including them in a view that goes back to 1992 makes no sense.
In the end the way you win is buy drafting well. Drafting earlier in the first round makes that easier to achieve, but doesn't guarantee you anything if you can't hit on late round picks.
But still the best way to achieve success since practically it should make drafting easier when you have earlier picks in each round.
I'd also love to see a "total picks made in the first 4 rounds" and playoff success view like this, because I have a feeling accumulating picks makes it a lot easier too.