Quote:
Originally Posted by gvitaly
A couple of things regarding the odds. So in order to get those 40% odds you still need to win the lottery. That's about 1/4 at best, so the absolute best case scenario of finishing last gives you a ~10% chance to win a cup.
Another thing you don't account for is when said player wins the cup. Most of them win it much later in their career, after the first 7 years of team control.
Here's a list of first overall picks drafted after 2008 with a cup: MacKinnon! That's it.
A deeper dive:
- Eichel drafted(2nd) in 2015, traded, first cup in 2023
- MacKinnon drafted in 2013, first cup in 2022
- Stamkos drafted in 2008, first cup in 2020
- Hedman (2nd) drafted in 2009 first cup in 2020
- I can't remember who was the top draft pick in STL
- Ovechkin drafted in 2004 first cup in 2018
- Backstrom(4th) drafted in 2006 first cup in 2018
Sid is the exception not the rule. My point is that even if you get a top player like Tkachuk or McDavid, that player will have the option to leave before a team has had enough cracks at a cup.
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Look at how their respective teams performed in the standings/playoffs year over year also. These players listed were all on perennial playoff teams and often fighting for division spots.
If drafting top 1/2 gives the Flames a shot at being a perennial playoff team with a few conference finals appearances / stanley cup finals appearances, why wouldn't we try that? Doing what the Flames have been doing has obviously not worked.