Quote:
Originally Posted by gvitaly
A couple of things regarding the odds. So in order to get those 40% odds you still need to win the lottery. That's about 1/4 at best, so the absolute best case scenario of finishing last gives you a ~10% chance to win a cup.
Another thing you don't account for is when said player wins the cup. Most of them win it much later in their career, after the first 7 years of team control.
Here's a list of first overall picks drafted after 2008 with a cup: MacKinnon! That's it.
A deeper dive:
- Eichel drafted(2nd) in 2015, traded, first cup in 2023
- MacKinnon drafted in 2013, first cup in 2022
- Stamkos drafted in 2008, first cup in 2020
- Hedman (2nd) drafted in 2009 first cup in 2020
- I can't remember who was the top draft pick in STL
- Ovechkin drafted in 2004 first cup in 2018
- Backstrom(4th) drafted in 2006 first cup in 2018
Sid is the exception not the rule. My point is that even if you get a top player like Tkachuk or McDavid, that player will have the option to leave before a team has had enough cracks at a cup.
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True I left a 5 year window after being drafted - maybe the real window is 10 years after .
And yea players can leave - however they don’t . Teams ensure they lock them up . In fact there a reason the FA market is usually so bad . Calgarys failure to retain their talent is a historic mistake that GMs will not replicate .
If you look at the list of top picks there’s one that left via trade and went to another team and won the cup . And he demanded a trade.
But the odds are effectively zero if you don’t acquire the top talent . And usually why a team is bad for 3-5 years before building up.
Flames need to be BAD for 3-4 years , have 3-4 lottery shots at a top pick, and also hit on some later round guys . That’s how you win a cup
Does it guarantee a cup ? Nothing guarantees . That’s why it’s called a strategy . You give yourself the the best opportunity to execute the ultimate goal - winning a cup
Or I guess hope Zary turns into McKinnon , Wolfe into Brodeur , and someone into Makar . I know which strategic route make sense to me
The delusion that the Flames in their current form can be competitive any other way astounds me .