Quote:
Originally Posted by gvitaly
A couple of things regarding the odds. So in order to get those 40% odds you still need to win the lottery. That's about 1/4 at best, so the absolute best case scenario of finishing last gives you a ~10% chance to win a cup.
Another thing you don't account for is when said player wins the cup. Most of them win it much later in their career, after the first 7 years of team control.
Here's a list of first overall picks drafted after 2008 with a cup: MacKinnon! That's it.
A deeper dive:
- Eichel drafted(2nd) in 2015, traded, first cup in 2023
- MacKinnon drafted in 2013, first cup in 2022
- Stamkos drafted in 2008, first cup in 2020
- Hedman (2nd) drafted in 2009 first cup in 2020
- I can't remember who was the top draft pick in STL
- Ovechkin drafted in 2004 first cup in 2018
- Backstrom(4th) drafted in 2006 first cup in 2018
Sid is the exception not the rule. My point is that even if you get a top player like Tkachuk or McDavid, that player will have the option to leave before a team has had enough cracks at a cup.
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This too often gets overlooked.
For Colorado, Tampa, Washington, etc it was generally about 12-14 years after their first top 3 pick that they won the cup. Hawks and Kings won close to their top pick, but had been bad for years before making those picks.
Pittsburgh is the exception (they also won the Crosby lottery) but for the most part but generally the teams are really bad for a while first.
IMO the key is still less about drafting top 3, and more about just drafting well overall. The key for all these teams was strong depth to go along with the star players due to strong overall drafting and player development.