Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay Random
The majority of the teams in the league meet the same criterion, and have won bupkis. Whereas two of the small number of teams that don't meet it have won championships. The correlation isn't there.
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Nope. There is absolutely correlation between having a top 2 pick you drafted on your roster and winning the cup since the implementation of the salary cap.
Between 2003-2018 (I am giving a 5 year window between when a guy is drafted 1st or 2nd and their team to 'compete' seriously for the cup so excluding the last 5 drafts) There were 30 players drafted 1st or 2nd overall and 15 Stanley Cup winners (between 2008-2023)
1st overall picks : 6 of 15 picks won a cup, total of 13 cups between those 6 players
2nd overall pick 8 of 15 picks won a cup , total of 10 cups between them
So a DRAFTED 1st overall pick during that timeframe has been on 65% of the cup winning teams. A DRAFTED second overall pick has been on 50% of the cup winning teams. 40% of the 1st overall picks won a cup, and 53% of the 2nd overall picks won a cup. (NOTE - I am excluding Eric Staal and Bobby Ryan who both did win a cup but shortly after the draft year so it falls outside the 5 year window a team is bad and ready to compete I am using for this analysis even though both these players had a big part in the cup win)
Only one of those players was traded to the cup winning team (Eichel) because he demanded a trade
The busts in these spots? Teams often trade them/give up on them. That's why so many teams have a top 3 drafted player on their roster - Because the bust/non franchise players are traded or let go.
Does getting a 1st or 2nd overall pick guarantee a cup? Of course not. But NOT getting these picks statistically almost guarantees you wont win as well. One of those things you can control - Getting the pick to draft the franchise player.
So if the Flames are to win a cup. statistically the way to get there post cap world is :
Draft a player 1st or 2nd overall: 87% of teams
Have a 1st or 2nd overall pick join your team who was drafted by another team: 7% of teams (LV) - And that player demanded a trade and is the only 1st or 2nd pick during this time to demand a trade
Build a non tanking team and go on a run: 7% of teams (St.L)
Sure seems getting a 1st or 2nd overall pick is the path I would choose if i was trying to build a Stanley Cup contender