[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Are there any other NHL teams besides Calgary (also Vegas) who have never had a top-three pick?

Those are the only ones.

(The Atlanta Flames picked 2nd overall in 1972 and 1973, taking Jacques Richard and Tom Lysiak, respectively. For reasons we know too well, it didn't do them much good.)

I took the time just now to whomp up a spreadsheet of teams that have drafted top-3 since the Entry Draft was established in 1979 (and in the Amateur Draft before that). Here, for each year's Stanley Cup winner in the cap era, is a list of the times they picked top 3 in the preceding 15 seasons:

NSFW!

2006, Carolina: 1993 2nd, 2003 2nd
2007, Anaheim: 1994 2nd, 2005 2nd
2008, Detroit: None
2009, Pittsburgh: 2003 1st, 2004 2nd, 2005 1st, 2006 2nd
2010, Chicago: 2004 3rd, 2006 3rd, 2007 1st
2011, Boston: 1997 1st, 2010 2nd
2012, Los Angeles: 2008 2nd, 1997 3rd
2013, Chicago: 2004 3rd, 2006 3rd, 2007 1st
2014, Los Angeles: 2008 2nd
2015, Chicago: 2004 3rd, 2006 3rd, 2007 1st
2016, Pittsburgh: 2003 1st, 2004 2nd, 2005 1st, 2006 2nd
2017, Pittsburgh: 2003 1st, 2004 2nd, 2005 1st, 2006 2nd
2018, Washington: 2004 1st
2019, St. Louis: 2006 1st
2020, Tampa Bay: 2008 1st, 2009 2nd, 2013 3rd
2021, Tampa Bay: 2008 1st, 2009 2nd, 2013 3rd
2022, Colorado: 2009 3rd, 2011 2nd, 2013 1st
2023, Vegas: None

That's 40 top-3 picks by the last 18 Stanley Cup champions, or 2.22 per team. In the league as a whole, in any given year, there are 45 players who have been drafted with a top-3 pick in the last 15 years, or (at the moment) 1.41 per team.

If you eliminate duplicates (multiple Cup winners), only 22 players remain on the list, divided among 12 franchises – 1.78 per team. It's a difference, but not a huge one, and the range goes from zero to four.

One thing that leaps to the eye is that all the teams to win multiple championships in this span have had at least three top-3 picks in the preceding 15 years, except Los Angeles. It would appear that you can get yourself a dynasty by sucking hard enough for long enough. But we need to be careful here.

At this moment, here is the number of times each team in the NHL has drafted top-3 in the 15 drafts from 2008 to 2022. (I leave off 2023 because nobody from that draft was in the league last time the Stanley Cup was awarded.) The last 5 Cup winners are marked with asterisks.

Edmonton, 5
Buffalo, 4
Florida, 4
*Colorado, 3
Columbus, 3
New Jersey, 3
**Tampa Bay, 3
Anaheim, 2
Arizona, 2
Chicago, 2
Los Angeles, 2
Montreal, 2
NY Rangers, 2
Carolina, 1
Dallas, 1
NY Islanders, 1
Ottawa, 1
Philadelphia, 1
Seattle, 1
Toronto, 1
Winnipeg, 1
Calgary, 0
Detroit, 0
Minnesota, 0
Nashville, 0
Pittsburgh, 0
San Jose, 0
*St. Louis, 0
Vancouver, 0
*Vegas, 0
Washington, 0

If sucking hard and drafting top-3 were the way to win championships, Edmonton and Buffalo would be the class of the league right now. Florida would have squashed Vegas like a bug in last year's finals, and presumably their highest scorer would not have been a 6th-overall pick acquired in a trade. As it is, there doesn't seem to be a whole lot of correlation. The last few champions either sucked a bit more than average during their latest rebuilds, or else never sucked at all and built their teams a different way. And the majority of the teams near the top of the list haven't won a thing.