Quote:
Originally Posted by Red Slinger
It's hard to understand the state of the war through all of the data.
Is Russia winning? Ukraine? Stalemate? What are the long-term prospects currently?
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Putin's 3 day operation is now at 629 days. Ukraine has reclaimed 74,443 km2 of territory, but Russia still controls 18% of Ukraine's territory including Crimea.
Ukraine's counteroffensive this summer failed to meet its objective and ran out of steam, mainly as a result of giving Russia way too much time to prepare its defenses, which is a multi layered defense system with millions upon millions of mines, making Ukraine the most heavily mined country in the world. Russia deciding to take Avdiivka at all costs with one of the largest assault seen since the beginning of the war with disastrous results (arguably even more so than Bakhmut as this battle included a lot more tanks).
Most of the current extremely high casualties numbers come from this battle.
Russia's current plan seems to be to get as much territory as possible to sit on and win in a ceasefire / peacetalk agreement, no matter the cost (to likely break it and attack as soon as they regroup). Logic has long disappeared from Russian plans.
Ukraine, with the offensive failing to reach any major breakthrough, is in a tough spot this winter as Russia gets more time to build defenses, while western allies are growing increasingly weary of sending weapons to Ukraine (note how we are no longer getting big news about large amounts of tanks being sent).
Ukraine will have F-16 in their possession in 2024 as Ukraine pilots are currently being trained on them, where a potential 2024 summer offensive with air support is the likely next major move.
This is a war of attrition though, something that Ukraine really cannot win over time as is where they recover all their territories lost.