Quote:
Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist
But I will challenge your assumptions about the developing world's energy use. The past isn't always the future. Developing countries don't have legacy grids, are situated in quite different climates than developed countries, and largely don't have the natural resources to use fossil fuels like the developed world. Energy demand per capita excluding industry is falling in the developed world due to efficiency, so there's no reason to think that quality of life standards require the same kind of energy they do today. It's fair to point out the "sun doesn't always shine and wind doesn't always blow" problem in Alberta, but that is much less of a problem in India and Africa. Micro grids will make a lot of sense in some places and the natural growth of these grids will not necessarily mirror the past with large generation feeding outside communities. There's no reason, for example that with electricity prices shaping demand in developing countries that a peak must be between 5-7pm when there's no historic data there for it. Especially when peak demand will likely be for air conditioning which will match solar production. And with almost certainty, EVs will become cheaper than gas powered vehicles especially in places that don't have their own oil supplies. There's no doubt though that developed countries will have to help fund the energy transition or it's dead in the water. This must improve.
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You're right, the past doesn't always dictate the future, and I imagine we'll continue get more efficient as time and tech marches forward. But even if we get more efficient, we have a massive demand battle coming up, as the vast majority of population growth is going to come from the countries that are still developing.
As I mentioned in my previous post, a place like India with 7,000kWh per capita energy use doesn't have to match what we use (100,000kWh) in terms of energy demand to have a massive impact. Even if they just match where China is today (31,000kHw, a third of Canada's) that's 4x growth, and will amount to a huge amount of energy considering their population is bigger than Europe/N.America combined. And that's just India. Add in Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan etc.
And then there's Africa, where according to the UN, more than half of the global population growth between now and 2050 will be. The most populous, and richest country by GDP, country in Africa is Nigeria, and they have only 2,500kWh of energy use per capita (1/3 of India, 1/40 of Canada!). Even with the most efficient of efficient energy sources, and moderate growth, just imagine the energy growth potential on that continent.
Not sure if this will work, but here's Canada/China/India/Nigeria in comparison:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/p...HN~CAN~IND~NGA