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Originally Posted by Leondros
I will eat my shoe if we reach peak demand on oil by 2030. Those models are based on fairy tales and pixy dust. These will be upward adjusted in the next 2 years, mark my words.
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I assure you it's real forecasts by people with very extensive knowledge who's error bars have traditionally been waaaaaaaay more on the epansion of fossil fuel side. This is taking into account a lot of things that are rapidly changing, and past will not be a good predictor of future. For example, did you know that the electrification of two and three wheelers in places like India and other Asian countries (which aren't going to see vehicle onwership like Canada ever) already is displacing more than a million barrels of Oil? Or that in China (worlds largest vehicle market) the share of EVs went from 5.5% in 2020, 13.3% in 2021, 25% in 2022, to around 40% this yyear and it's still increasing fast? You can't simply take an OECD country's energy use/mix and say that's where a developing country will be.
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As someone who has been to more African/ME countries than you can count for the sole purpose of meeting with those energy regulators and governments, I can tell you they are dead set on fossil fuel growth and development. They are all vastly under explored and they are screaming for capital to develop out their industries. Those that do not have reserves are laser focused on securing oil and natural gas barrels and are developing long-term pipeline and processing/generation infrastructure in country.
Lagos has 26 million people in it, and will likely surpass the population of Canada at some point. They are all hungry for a Western quality of life.
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I'm glad you mentioned Lagos. You know what else happened in Nigeria? The government ended subsidizing Oil because it couldn't afford to anymore. And now Solar is taking off. The answer there isn't going to be Oil. It's just not. Their demand peaks and usage will not mirror ours and will be shaped by how they get their energy. Micro-grids and distributed solar will mean much more for energy security than paying a weeks salary and spending a whole day to pick up subsidized fuel to run a generator for 4 hours a day for a whole week.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/featu...-checkout=true
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Again, what we are seeing on the ground in Colombia due to El Nino effects where 2/3's of their power is generated by Hydro is a borderline catastrophe. They are not getting enough water and their energy costs have more than doubled for a population that can barely afford increase in food costs as it is. President Petro with his green movement has basically destroyed his natural gas production capability (see Canacol's recent Press Release) and they will need to begin importing from other countries. It is an absolute disaster.
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Droughts are wreaking havoc in many countries that have traditionally relied on hydropower (including China). This is all the more reason to urgently get off combustion of fossil fuels