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Originally Posted by Table 5
We can't even phase out coal and burning wood...yet somehow we're going to magically replace oil and natural gas too? All within our lifetime? That's quite the optimistic world you're living in.
I know I've brought this chart up before, but it's an important one.
Everyone assumes new forms of energy lead to the death of the old, but that's not the case. It all just gets added to the growing pile. The % mix may change, but the old energy source tends to stick around. We use more coal today than we ever did. We still burn wood...err I mean "biomass"... like cavemen for effin sake. Why? Because as our global standard of living increases, so does the thirst for energy to maintain and increase that standard, and there's no single source of energy that can feed the ever-hungrier monster.
If you look at the global population demographics, that demand will only go up as people in Asia and the Global South look to better their life. As people move up the quality-of-life ladder, so does their demand for energy. They want stable energy grids, they want infrastructure, they want industry, they want better homes, they want air conditioners, they want phones and computers, they want cars, they want to travel, they want to eat food from other places, etc. They want all the energy-consuming comforts you have and take for granted, and will not be denied for your cause of emission reduction.
Unless you're hoping for a drastic reduction in standard of living in the developed world, or to deny all the people in the developing world from rising above poverty (which would be a real #### thing to hope for), global energy usage is going to trend up. And that demand is also why fossil fuels aren't going anywhere. The future won't be fossil fuels OR renewables. It's going to be fossil fuels AND renewables. |
Firstly, anyone who thinks phasing out combustion is either easy or inevitable aren't living in reality. Most scenarios from most models suggest a long tail rather than steep decline for oil and a modestly long decline. Almost all models suggest gas to increase for a bit then decline. The IEA and Bloomberg NEF are both seeing a peak in road fuel and coal demand by 2027/28 and oil by 2030 with petrochemicals/plastics pushing the peak back a couple years.
But I will challenge your assumptions about the developing world's energy use. The past isn't always the future. Developing countries don't have legacy grids, are situated in quite different climates than developed countries, and largely don't have the natural resources to use fossil fuels like the developed world. Energy demand per capita excluding industry is falling in the developed world due to efficiency, so there's no reason to think that quality of life standards require the same kind of energy they do today. It's fair to point out the "sun doesn't always shine and wind doesn't always blow" problem in Alberta, but that is much less of a problem in India and Africa. Micro grids will make a lot of sense in some places and the natural growth of these grids will not necessarily mirror the past with large generation feeding outside communities. There's no reason, for example that with electricity prices shaping demand in developing countries that a peak must be between 5-7pm when there's no historic data there for it. Especially when peak demand will likely be for air conditioning which will match solar production. And with almost certainty, EVs will become cheaper than gas powered vehicles
especially in places that don't have their own oil supplies. There's no doubt though that developed countries will have to help fund the energy transition or it's dead in the water. This must improve.