Quote:
Originally Posted by GullFoss
Sure...the biggest reasonable assumption adjustment is clustering which negatively impacts the odds.
But the rest of the factors are largely subjective and uncertain in impact, so revert back to base odds once you account for the unknowns around variable parameters  |
Hmm, not sure if subjective is the word I'd use. I think to an extent they can be quantifiable with analysis, albeit with a great deal of an error range. I think we'd agree that adding in additional factors to a model would generally decrease that number with respect to Calgary.
Also, starting position matters which in this case is known. I'd guess you'd have more opportunities to win if you start from a peak than from a downhill crest.
And, of course, random variation tops everything!