Fangraphs literally just wrote an article about this:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/layoffs-...-historically/
Quote:
Dan Szymborski culled the historical database for every matchup in playoff history where one team had a layoff of four or more days while their opponent had a layoff of two or fewer days.
There have been 35 of these games in baseball history. The team with more rest has gone 24-11 in them. Dan also predicted the winner of each of these games based on the team’s seasonal record. From each team’s record, you’d expect the rested teams to go 19-16; they’ve been slightly better in aggregate, which makes sense given the pool we’re drawing from.
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The article concludes there is no disadvantage to having the longer layoff, but it does stop short of saying it is an advantage. It argues that less rest days in between series and games would likely give that advantage back.
Quote:
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Wild Card teams are supposed to be disadvantaged by having to play more games in less time, but after tonight’s games, the Phillies and Diamondbacks will have each played four games in the last seven days. I don’t think there’s any evidence that the extra layoff is hurting the teams that receive byes, but the lower seeds are hardly facing an impossible burden from playing extra games.
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I agree with that suggestion - there are way too many days off in the postseason such that pitching depth matters so much less than it does in the regular season. I understand that MLB wants more star pitchers on the mound every night so they do the extra rest, but it hardly helps determine the best team in baseball.