Quote:
Originally Posted by oilers_fan
Are there even any market analysts or real estate guru's predicting a downfall in this provinces' housing market? Or is it the opinion of basically everybody that this is the new fact of life here in Alberta for many years to come?
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The problem with any market analysts in real estate is that they are tremendously biased. They make their money and get hired and fired based on their short-term outlooks and pay little attention to the long-term: ie 6 months and beyond. Realtors make money on commision and thus keep how long they have things listed a heavily guarded secret when things are starting to fall. It seems entirely reasonable for a housebuying couple to 'ante-up' an additional $20K and believeing a realtor's pressure sell tactics after a period of time like the last one we just experienced.
As for outlook of the Alberta market it is extremely tied to the price of Oil. Some of the independent research firm's call on Oil is for it to stabalize in the $50-60 range and producers will be better able to control their costs. What this means for the housing market is that it should drop off from the 'panic induced' highs of 2005-2007 and then remain fairly stable plateau as contruction costs stabilize as well. This new plateau will be much higher than 2004 prices but much more stable.